November 2008
25 posts
Diversification →
The Economist claims the only free lunch lately has been for fund managers. And they’re probably right. As we’ve found, diversification seems to work in “normal” times, but has left something to be desired recently. Cash is an as an asset class and really the only thing that has worked to diversify. That is, unless, we get back to the good old days of the Weimar Republic.
October 2008
29 posts
“Within the financial sector, de-leveraging is well advanced. In the real economy...”
– Satyajit Das
I highly recommend Das’ book, “Traders, Guns and Money”
Unknown Unknowns
This is an excerpt from Ron Sen at Technically Speaking:
For those of us who haven’t lived through 1930-32, we can’t say “we’ve been through this before.” A few points: * Fair ‘valuation’ means nothing under the pressure of redemption * What fair valuation becomes under ZERO GROWTH conditions becomes a point of argument. * What 2009 earnings will be...
TraderFeed: What the Cumulative Adjusted NYSE TICK... →
More data driven research from Dr Brett Steenbarger
Financial Markets — Open Yale Courses →
A course taught by the renowned Robert Shiller. I love how Yale, MIT and others are opening up their cirriculum. There isn’t enough time in the day.
“What if it was happiness, not price, that peaked in 1999?”
– http://gregor.us/crisis/down-from-the-highs-of-happiness/
joelaz:
The Clash - Wrong ‘Em Boyo
Manic Depressive Mr. Market
Investment decisions should be made in the context of the big picture, whether you are trading intra-day moves or socking savings away in a retirement account.
I could cherry pick all bearish posts I’ve made over the past year, but I won’t because I have been wrong at times too, especially when trying to call short term retracements. I realize that very few will be able to time a...
“Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of ExxonMobil. Each year...”
– Gregor McDonald - Advice to Major XOM
In Defense of Hank Paulson
This has not been an easy time for anyone involved in finance, but I imagine Hank Paulson has gotten less sleep than most of us over the past few weeks. The great thing about the web is that we have access to people who are putting out smart ideas on what can be done to free up the credit market and restore confidence. The downside is that everyone ends up turning into a Monday morning...
George Soros on saving finance →
The idea is to re-capitalize solvent banks using preferred share purchases. I like his thinking here, but would be concerned about the definition of solvent. Who makes that call and what if they are wrong? Are we throwing good money after bad? The housing market must bottom and the bids have to come back in the MBS/ABS market. The $700bil can’t get around the fact that some guesswork...
Small Caps Close at All-Time Relative High →
I have been nibbling at small caps (via ETFs) over the past year or so. This has made me “less wrong”, but still under water for 2008. Given the amazing run this decade and the current market, is it time to start adjusting allocations?
Still Holding Back - Barrons.com →
An excellent interview with Jeremy Grantham on his current outlook.
Before This Hole Gets Deeper, a Break From Digging →
It seems we’ve heard of a new government plan to help [insert any one of recent financial calamities] every day for the past couple weeks. These stop-gap measures are well intentioned, but they have had the effect of injecting additional volatility into the equity markets. Our government and the private sector should start thinking proactively so that we can start pulling ourselves out...
joelaz:
Galactic & DJ Z-Trip - Custard Pie...
joelaz:
Wintersleep - Weighty Ghost
“We need to get a deal done - now - but we absolutely need transparency, we need...”
– Information Arbitrage
